Santa Barbara Real Estate Market Update For April 2026

MOST IMPORTANT FINANCIAL WEEK OF 2026

This is turning out to be the most important week for spring homebuying in 2026.

Taxes are done or kicked down the road for the next 6 months.

Refunds are on their way for 70% of taxpayers that filed this week.

Oil prices are dropping at shocking rates to wrap up the week.

Stocks are ripping higher to new records.

Projections of Fed policy leading to lower rates by December returned to over 50% (CME Group).

And as a result of it all, bond yields and mortgage rates are falling.

It all might be an over reaction to a potential truce between Lebanon and Israel and a proposed $20Bn uranium deal between Iran and the US.

With each individually motivated to catch the trade first, Wall Street is all in today on peace returning to the Middle East and the USA doing more to insulate themselves against Chinese influence at a level that matters to overall business and trade.

WHERE THIS LANDS US

Crude oil prices have dropped below $83 per barrel (gas prices in California may drop below $5 per gallon as a result).

The Dow is over 49,500, pushing close to record highs.

The S&P 500 index and Nasdaq have both hit all-time highs.

The 10-Year Treasury is down to 4.24%.

All of this is as noted at WSJ.com.

MORTGAGES TRENDING HELPFULLY LOWER

According to averages, we see the lowest mortgage rates in 30 days.

Mortgage News Daily is noting 6.29% as the average conforming 30 year fixed and 6.52% as the average Jumbo 30 year fixed.

According to the CME Group, there is now a 53.7% chance of the Fed lowering their Federal Funds Rate by .25% or more by yearend. The chances have more than doubled in a week.

This is a big move in a week to the positive for those cheering on lower rates.

There’s still more to go to get back to the 5.99% rates we saw in late February. Yet, we’re going in the right direction.

It’s clear that this reaction has to be taken with a huge grain of salt. The Middle East negotiations are never going to be a straight path with a clear result.

But, we also must take our wins where we can.

The week’s direction is what we all wish for.

FIRST-TIME HOME BUYER DATA

I see often online the youth lamenting the realities of housing affordability.

For those that scoff at their complaining, the data doesn’t lie. Their path is harder than any other generation.

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the average first-time home buyer age is now 40.

Yes, 40!

And, this nationwide, not just the high cost areas.

Homes are now becoming the new “midlife crisis” purchase instead of the “just married” purchase.

And the percentage of overall buyers between July 2024 to June 2025 that were first-time home buyers was a measly 21%.

This is an all-time low and has been trending down for years.

Before 2008, the average was right around 40% of all homebuyers being first-time home buyers.

Since 2012’ish, it has progressively been falling. Averages before Covid were in the low 30%s.

This is when home prices were running higher for a decade and then got a double shot in the arm during Covid.

Higher home prices hurt first-time home buyers the most because of the down payment requirements. The greater the entry level home price, the greater the needs of a down payment, closing costs, and reserve requirements.

These funds to accumulate are now taking decades.

ONCE YOU’RE IN, YOU’RE IN

Yet, those that already own are already in. If they are having to buy these higher priced homes, they are getting to sell at a higher price.

Their current home’s value increase,offers them the funds for the down payment, closing costs and reserves.

They aren’t held back to make the next purchase, especially with the many bridge loan options coming online of late.

The net result is the average repeat buyer being at an all-time high of 62, according to NAR.

And a repeat buyer making up 79% of all transactions last year.

HOME PRICES ARE SUSTAINABLE GIVEN THIS REALITY

So, if you’re reading headlines about these home prices being unsustainable and believe a crash is looming, the economics don’t support the headline.

With nearly 80% of the buyers with significant chips (dollars / equity) to work with, and they are selling in an environment in which they’re buying, the down payment money is there to support these prices.

Yet, this reality also is a big reason why less than 4 million homes are tracking to be sold nationally each year.  This is 1 million homes less than normal years according to NAR data.

The older population transacts less.

They have less need to move as regularly.  Their low interest rates limit their desire further to do so.  Thus, lower than average inventory and lower sales overall.

ENVIRONMENTAL BATTLE

As a society, we need to all work together to solve this problem. Only 21% of buyers being first-time home buyers is a problem.

Less than 4 million home sales is a problem.

The only way to truly solve long-term housing affordability is through building more homes.

Building homes comes with a huge environmental cost.

But without doing so, it comes at a huge societal cost.

As a nation each year we are getting more and more behind on sufficient numbers of homes for our youth to live and build a family in.

Prices will forever stay high in this environment of limited new construction.

And this environment is not one we want for our next generation of young families.

So, the big question is how we marry the actual environment with this current and looming real estate environment.

Both matter.

And the path isn’t simple nor black and white.

Let’s all push to get both in the room together, and ask our politicians to do the same.

Note – A first-time home buyer is someone that hasn’t owned a home in three years or more. A divorced or widowed person that purchases a home post separation is considered a first-time home buyer as well.

CONDO CHANGES – PURCHASERS AND REALTORS

This week I wrote up a helpful document to detail out the changes to Fannie and Freddie’s condo guidelines.

Some updates are good and some are more stringent. Both are important to understand.

If you are looking to sell your condo, buy a condo, or represent buyers or sellers, reach out to me.

OR if you are on an HOA’s board or manage properties, reach out to me. I’ll send you the document.

BUDGET SAVINGS TIP – REJECT THE TEMPTATION

For the majority, a sizable tax refund feels like free money. And any time money feels free, it’s spent much looser than dollars that feel hard earned.

The majority will spend the funds in a celebratory way with a vacation being most common.

I implore those reading this to take the funds and put them towards your greatest, long-term goal.

If that is buying a home, put the dollars in your savings for the home purchase. If it is a master’s degree, put it towards that.

If it is having a life debt free, pay down your debt.

The money is no more free than your hard earned dollars, so put the dollars towards what matters most to you long term.

And, if you need some sort of celebration, which is healthy too, find a low cost way to celebrate. Then put the rest towards the bigger goal.

LET’S CONNECT

Many have been taking advantage of my calendar. I love it! Let’s talk through your scenario to help you plan and act. Book a time on my calendar – I’d love to connect with you around these topics or any others, https://www.calendly.com/jeff–bochsler